Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
How much you can withdraw from a portfolio each year.
Ending balance after 30 years
$2,367,175
Year 1 withdrawal
$40,000
Final year withdrawal
$81,856
Balance over time
Year 0Year 30
The 4% rule comes from the Trinity study. Real returns vary year to year, so use this as a planning baseline rather than a guarantee.
About
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your starting portfolio (inflation-adjusted) and have a 95% chance of not running out over 30 years. This calculator runs the math for any rate, portfolio size, and horizon.
How to use
- Enter portfolio size, withdrawal rate, expected return, and inflation.
- See annual income and how the balance evolves over the time horizon.
FAQ
Is 4% still safe?+
Most modern updates suggest 3.5-4% for a 30-year retirement. Longer retirements (50+ years) push the safe rate down to about 3.25%.
Does it account for sequence of returns risk?+
Not directly. This is a deterministic projection. Real markets have crashes early or late which matter a lot. Use it as a guide, not a guarantee.